I have spent enough years talking to, working with and
listening to the Chinese community to understand one thing: when an old uncle
at the kopitiam says “無辦法” (bô-pān-hoat)
boh pian, no way, no easy
solution: he is not necessarily giving up.
Sometimes he is simply saying:
“無辦法啦，愛想別个辦法。”
No choice. We have to find another way.
That, perhaps, is the most honest way to look at Hong
Kong today.
Not through the dramatic headlines about whether Hong Kong is “finished”. Not through the endless political arguments about Beijing and the West. And certainly not through the simplistic idea that a financial centre either succeeds or collapses overnight.
Hong Kong's problem is much more complicated.
It is facing a stress test.
Finance is under pressure. The property market has gone
through a difficult cycle. Land revenue is no longer the comfortable cash
machine it once was. Young people continue to worry about housing and
opportunities. At the same time, Hong Kong is being asked to reinvent itself
while remaining one of the world's major financial centres.
這个才是真正个問題
This is the real problem.
And anyone who has spent time with the Chinese business
community will understand why this matters.
The Chinese businessman does not necessarily panic when
the market goes down.
He asks another question:
Is this real or not? Then show me the numbers.
Anyone who has spoken seriously with Hong Kong families
knows that property is not simply property.
It is wealth.
It is retirement.
It is family security.
It is status.
And sometimes, frankly, it is the family argument that
never ends.
For decades, Hong Kong's restricted land supply and the sale of development rights generated substantial government revenue. But that same model helped push land and property values to extraordinary levels, making it increasingly difficult for younger people to enter the housing market.
This is where Hong Kong has a rather uncomfortable
problem.
If property values remain high, existing owners have an
obvious interest in protecting those values.
The government also benefits from land-related revenue.
But if land and housing become too expensive, young
Hongkongers are squeezed.
So the government is walking between two fires.
Release too much land and you risk undermining the value
of the existing property system.
Release too little and you continue feeding the
affordability problem.
It is really not simple.
That is why the Northern Metropolis matters far beyond
another giant infrastructure project.
Hong Kong is trying to create new economic value around
land rather than simply relying on land sales to generate government revenue.
That is a fundamental shift.
The question is whether it can work.
THE FIVE-YEAR PLAN: CONTINUITY OR A NEW HONG KONG?
Hong Kong now has its first five-year development plan.
Chief Executive John Lee has presented a framework
running to 2030, with 22 indicators - five binding and 17 anticipatory - while
positioning Hong Kong around the “four centres, one hub”: financial, maritime,
aviation and trade centres, together with a high-calibre talent hub.
The Northern Metropolis sits prominently inside this
strategy.
The plan envisages a roughly 30,000-hectare development
near Shenzhen involving business, education, housing, innovation and
technology.
The government wants “spade-ready sites” to rise from
120 hectares to 900 hectares by 2030.
On paper, it sounds enormous.
But anyone who has covered business long enough knows
that a masterplan is only the beginning.
Talking about it is easy.
And that is
exactly where Hong Kong's five-year plan will eventually be judged — not by the
size of the document, but by whether it changes the economics of everyday life.
THE LAND PREMIUM PROBLEM
Hong Kong's land-revenue model has come under pressure
because the property market has weakened.
The government has therefore begun experimenting with
different mechanisms, including more flexible land-premium arrangements and the
“Pay for What You Build” approach for qualifying
non-residential developments.
In simple terms, Hong Kong is trying to make it easier
for developers to build without carrying the entire financial burden upfront.
That is quite a significant change in thinking but here
is where my experience with the Chinese business community tells me to be
careful.
Chinese businessmen are not necessarily frightened by
uncertainty.
They are frightened by “unclear uncertainty”.
There is a difference.
If you tell a businessman: “This is the risk.”
He can calculate it.
If you tell him: “This is the return.”
He can calculate it.
If you tell him: “These are the rules.”
He can make a decision.
But if the rules keep moving and nobody knows where the
policy is going, the businessman will do what businessmen everywhere eventually
do.
He waits.
等看先。
Wait and see first.
That two-word mentality can be very expensive for an
economy.
HONG KONG IS NOT LOSING ITS FINANCIAL DNA
There is another part of the story that deserves
attention.
The five-year plan does not abandon Hong Kong's
financial identity.
Quite the opposite.
The government wants to strengthen offshore renminbi
business, develop an international asset and wealth-management centre, expand
securities and fixed-income markets, develop commodities and gold trading, and
reinforce Hong Kong's role as a global financial hub.
Hong Kong remains deeply integrated into China's
financial system while retaining its own international financial
infrastructure.
That gives Hong Kong an advantage but an advantage is
not the same thing as a guarantee.
The world is changing. China is changing. Global capital
is changing. The relationship between Washington and Beijing is changing. Technology
is changing.
And investors have more choices than they did 20 years
ago.
So Hong Kong cannot simply tell investors:
“We used to do it this way.”
That is not enough anymore.
The city has to explain why doing business in Hong Kong tomorrow
remains attractive.
THE NORTHERN METROPOLIS GAMBLE
The Northern Metropolis may therefore be one of the most
important economic experiments in Hong Kong's modern history.
Its location next to Shenzhen is obvious.
But geography alone does not create an economic
ecosystem.
You need companies, workers, universities, infrastructure,
housing, capital and you need confidence.
Most importantly, you need people to believe that the
place has a future.
Otherwise you end up with what we in Malaysia sometimes
call a beautiful project that looks fantastic in the brochure but becomes very
quiet after the ribbon-cutting ceremony.
好看無好食。
Looks good, but does it actually work?
That is the question.
THE YOUNGER GENERATION
This is the part of Hong Kong's story that I think
deserves much more attention.
For policymakers and investors, the discussion is often
about GDP, land, capital flows, financial centres and technology.
But for a young Hongkonger, the calculation can be much
simpler.
Can I afford a home? - Can I find a decent job? - Can I
build a career? - Can I start a family? - Can I see myself living here ten
years from now?
You can build the world's most sophisticated financial
centre.
But if an entire generation believes prosperity belongs
mainly to people who already own property, then something is broken in the
social equation.
That is why Hong Kong's property problem is not merely a
property problem.
It is a generational problem.
And eventually it becomes an economic problem.
“BOH PIAN” DOES NOT MEAN “BOH HOPE”
This is where outsiders sometimes misunderstand the
Chinese community.
There is a tendency to interpret pragmatism as
pessimism.
It isn't.
When someone says:
“無辦法。”
It does not always mean: “There is no hope.”
Sometimes it means: “There is no easy way.”
And there is a big difference.
Hong Kong has survived major financial shocks,
epidemics, property crashes, geopolitical tensions and enormous economic
transformations.
Its strength has always been adaptation. The city does
not have the luxury of standing still.
So perhaps the question in 2026 is not: “Will
Hong Kong survive?”
The more interesting question is: “What kind of
Hong Kong will survive?”
Will it remain primarily a financial and property city?
Will it become a deeper technology and innovation hub?
Will the Northern Metropolis genuinely integrate with
the Greater Bay Area?
Will the new land policies create a healthier
development model?
Will younger Hongkongers actually benefit?
And can Hong Kong retain its international financial
character while becoming increasingly integrated with mainland China?
These are not questions that can be answered by slogans. They require execution. They require money. They require confidence.
And above all, they require patience.
Take it slowly, but keep moving.
Perhaps that is the Chinese business philosophy Hong
Kong needs now.
Not panic.
Not denial.
Not nostalgia.
And not blind optimism.
Just the willingness to look at the numbers, accept that
the old model has problems, and find another way forward.
Because when the old uncle at the kopitiam says:
“無辦法啦。”
Listen carefully.
He may not be saying the game is over.
He may simply be telling you:
“Boh pian. So we better think of another way.”
And perhaps that is exactly what Hong Kong is doing now.
Not collapsing.
Not standing still.
Reinventing itself - because it has no other choice.
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